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As the Trumpian peace deteriorates Iran will resort to its extensive cyber program to deliver wins to shore up the Khamenei regime, according to an Iranian who had worked with Israel's intelligence agency before starting his cyber security firm, according to a Forbes piece.
Iran’s cyber offensive units to respond soon with “quick and dirty” operations, which will be disruptive but not catastrophic, according to Sanaz Yashar. He predicts long-term Iranian investment in "destructive cyber capabilities” to carry out attacks that are “impactful and deniable,” according to Yashar.
The probability of such attacks are high enough that the US Department of Homeland Security to issue a warning about the heightened risk of cyberattacks from the Tehran regime or Iran-friendly hacktivists.
The risk is heightened in part because the DHS Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency (CISA) is currently understaffed due to Trump budget cuts and massive recent defections, including its director, leaving it rudderless, overworked and with low morale.
An increase in Iranian cyber activity would leave the agency overstretched to respond according to a CISA insider. “Any new work is going to cause more strain on CISA because we aren’t even being given the resources needed for our current workload,” he said.
“Start scheduling backups and don’t be surprised by cyber attacks from Iran or their supporters," wrote former CISA Cyber Security Advisory Council member Jeff Moss on Bluesky. "Right after dismantling CISA, perfect timing.
In late 2023 Iranian hackers breached the systems of several US water plants. CyberAv3ngers is a group linked to various attacks on global critical infrastructure, with a focus on targeting Israeli-made equipment, prompting the US to offered a $10 million reward for information on its members.
Iran’s hackers will want to use attacks as a type of influence operation that will “show off and enhance regime stability internally,” said Yashar. “The biggest concern would be they go after databases of naval, aviation and shipping information for further targeting.”
Yashar's concerns may be overblown, according to some cybersecurity experts. Iran isn't considered a serious cyber threat on the level of China or Russia, one CISA insider told Forbes.
“There is a real, practical risk to enterprises, but it’s important that we don’t overhype the threat here and give them the win they’re after,” wrote John Hultquist, chief analyst at Google’s Threat Intelligence Group, on LinkedIn this past weekend. He feels Iran’s cyber warfare is focused on creating anxiety among its enemies.
A security guard stands on a street, during early hours of ceasefire, in Tehran, Iran, June 24, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS