China Projects 9.4% GDP Growth for 2011

China will log 9.4 percent growth for full-year 2011 and 8.7 percent in 2012, predicted leading government economist Fan Jianping Saturday. The economy grew 9.6 percent in the first half of 2011, with the second quarter slowing to 9.5 percent from 9.7 percent in the first quarter.

Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will come to 5.5 percent for this year before slipping to 4 percent for 2012, predicted Fan who is director of economic forecasting at the State Information Center, speaking at a Tsinghua University forum on China’s economy.

Exports will play a smaller role in China’s growth in 2012 given the recent shrinking of the trade surplus, said Fan. The surplus shrank for a second consecutive month in September to $14.5 billion. In August it had fallen to $17.8 billion from $31.5 billion in July.

China will have to boost domestic consumption more to make up for the drop in export growth, Fan said. So far the nation has not done enough to boost consumption, he added.

Exports, consumption and investment are the three engines of China’s economic growth, but Fan warned that a massive stimulus package of big investment projects like the one implemented in 2008 would merely accelerate inflation.

China’s inflation rate slipped to 6.1 percent in September from a three-year high of 6.5 percent in July. That level remains well above the government’s 4 percent target.

New GDP data for the third quarter will be released Tuesday by the National Statistics Bureau.